Stock Market Nerd Macro – April 20, 2024
Consumer & Employment Data:
- Core retail sales M/M for March rose by 1.1% vs. 0.5% expected. This compares to 0.6% last month.
- Retail sales M/M for March rose by 0.7% vs. 0.4% expected and 0.9% last month.
- Housing Starts in March sharply missed estimates. Existing home sales slightly missed expectations.
- Continuing and Initial Jobless claim data was slightly better than expected.
Output Data:
- The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index for April was -14.2 vs. -5.2 expected. This compares to -20.9 last month.
- Industrial Production M/M for March was 0.4% as expected. This compares to 0.4% last month.
- The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for April was 15.5 vs. 1.5 expected. This compares to 3.2 last month.
In a speech this week, Powell acknowledged the pause in disinflation progress we’ve seen – especially in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) since January. He basically told us that this has pushed out rate cut expectations by a few months. Nothing about my take on the macro environment has changed from the last few weekly issues. (LINK)
I also wanted to chat very briefly about war’s impact on markets. I’m not even remotely an expert on war or geopolitics and want to stick strictly to my lane of investment in stocks. That is how I will frame the discussion as that is how I frame every discussion. While war is awful for all of those involved, while it’s anxiety provoking, saddening and upsetting, it is not devastating for Mr. Market. The stock market has a way of apathetically and coldly shrugging off encounters like the ones we are seeing today – after the initial shock factor has worn off. And regardless, this conflict has zero material impact on the long term compounding of the companies you or I invest in. These flare ups will continue to get significant attention and press, but when strictly viewing things through an investment lens, it will likely be much bark and no bite.
