Voss Capital: Amentum ($AMTM) Investment Case

Third-Party Content. Provided for informational purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. See disclosure here.

Voss Capital: Amentum ($AMTM) Investment Case

Introduction In their Q4 2024 investor letter, Voss Capital presents Amentum ($AMTM) as a compelling investment opportunity, highlighting it as an under-covered government services leader trading at a significant discount to its peers. Voss Capital, which returned +9.6% and +9.5% to investors net of fees in Q4 2024 for their Value Fund and Value Offshore Fund respectively, identifies Amentum as an attractive opportunity due to temporary spin-off dynamics and near-term selling pressure. The letter emphasizes Amentum’s strong fundamentals, substantial backlog, and clear deleveraging path as key factors supporting their investment thesis.

Investment Highlight: Amentum ($AMTM)

Business Overview

  • Newly formed government services provider
  • Created via reverse Morris trust (RMT) merger between Amentum and Jacobs’ CMS division in Q3 2024
  • Second largest public government services provider by revenue
  • Operates across five key markets: Defense (46%), Civil (17%), Environmental (15%), Space (11%), and Intelligence (11%)

Market Position

  • $45 billion backlog (3.2x annual revenue)
  • No single contract accounts for more than 4% of total revenue
  • Scale provides competitive advantage in bidding for larger contracts
  • 65% of revenues earned through cost-plus contracts, providing protection in high inflation environments

Performance Analysis

  1. Financial Position:
    • Strong cash generation with over $500M of annual FCF expected
    • Current net leverage ratio of 4.0x
    • Trading at <10x FCF
    • Management focused on reducing leverage to <3x by the end of FY26
  2. Growth Drivers:
    • Increasing geopolitical tensions
    • Growing cybersecurity needs
    • Expanding space exploration initiatives
    • Government modernization projects

Market Dynamics and Opportunities

  • Trading at an unwarranted 30%+ discount to peers due to spin-off dynamics
  • Stock has experienced volatility despite strong fundamentals
  • Backlog coverage and leverage reduction should drive multiple expansion
  • Integration of operations and execution on synergies from Jacobs merger likely to accelerate revenue growth

Valuation and Capital Allocation

  • Voss values the company at a conservative 10.5x 2026E EBITDA
  • Multiple expected to increase as the company delevers through 2026
  • 80% upside potential to $34 per share based on Voss’s analysis

Catalysts

  • Jacobs plans to sell its remaining 8% stake by end of June 2025
  • Private equity holders expected to reduce their stakes
  • Deleveraging progress toward <3x net leverage by FY26
  • Synergy realization from the Jacobs merger integration

Risks

  • Continued selling pressure until Jacobs and PE holders exit positions
  • Integration challenges with the recent merger
  • Government contracting sector volatility
  • Potential impacts from changing political administrations

Voss Capital views Amentum as an attractive special situation with substantial upside potential as temporary technical pressures subside and the company executes its post-merger strategy, aligning with their focus on identifying idiosyncratic, value-oriented investment opportunities that can generate uncorrelated alpha amid market uncertainty.

Click here for the full investor letter.

Disclaimer: Third party content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security. Third party content is not intended to serve as a recommendation to buy or sell any security and is not intended to serve as investment advice. Third party content creators are not affiliated with BBAE Holdings LLC, (“BBAE”) Redbridge Securities LLC (“Redbridge Securities”) or BBAE Advisors LLC (“BBAE Advisors”). All investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of principal. For additional important information, please click here.

Related Posts
BBAE Blueprint

Join BBAE: Unlock Up to $400 Bonus!

Tailored insights, powerful tools. Automatic bonus at signup.
Get Started with BBAE Now!